증시 대담
Now it's time on this Tuesday to get an in-depth look at markets around the world, including Korea.
And for that I'm joined on the line by Mr. Daniel Yoo, global strategist at Kiwoom Securities.
Mr. Yoo, thanks for coming on today.
You're welcome.
So, a global headline today. U.S. stocks got slammed overnight. The Nasdaq down almost 3-and-a-half percent, the other two main indexes down well over 2 percent. Obviously this is the U.S.-China trade issue. What are investors thinking out there?
Global market panic continued.
US 200 bn 10% to 25%
China 60bn 25% starting June 1. Retaliation by Chinese government.
US market fell 2~3% level across all indices. Dow, S&P5oo, Nasdaq, Small cap 2000
Worried that the US China trade war to last for a very long period of time.
However, we do not think that will be the case.
The Chinese tariffs are going to take effect on June 1st, if nothing changes. With stocks down so much already, is this the end of it, or if not, when do you see things stabilizing?
We expected the news that came out on May 5 Sunday by Trump Tweet will have at least around 5% correction impact.
So far China fell over 10% , US fell around 5%
Global market fell around 5%
Key question is whether US will impose tax on additional 300 billion plus goods.
I don't think that will happen. But people are worried.
If fight lingers to the end of the year, market will fall by another 5~10%.
We need three things. 1) rate cut, 2) agreement, 3) economic leading indicator bottoming.
The Bank of Korea has released some new figures on export prices. The index for April up half a percent from the month before. The third monthly rise in a row. On the other hand, semiconductor prices, one of the main exports, are still falling. What's going on there?
We see export price index rising because oil price rise impacts positively of petrochemical product price. Also most of other automobile and parts all showing rising trend in price.
However, still Dram price is falling on the worries of China demand and other handset related demands.
Most likely export price will rise further as Dram price will stabilize in 2H2019.
Data center, AI related demand pick up significantly in 2H2019
Also, Samsung planning to invest 133trillion won in non-memory semiconductor business will raise price due to stronger demand for semiconductor machinery prices.
Well, Mr. Yoo. That's where we'll leave it today. Thanks so much for your insights, as always.
